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We’ve made it through January, and as we kick off February, I finally had the chance to sit down with my good friend Atif Ahmad, Founder and Senior Loan Officer at Adelo Mortgage. Atif and I have worked together for over a decade, and he’s one of the sharpest minds I know when it comes to mortgages. With so much uncertainty around interest rates and the real estate market, we wanted to break down where things stand and what buyers and sellers should expect in 2025.
🎥 Want to hear the full conversation? Watch my in-depth chat with Atif Ahmad, Founder & Senior Loan Officer at Adelo Mortgage, where we break down market trends, interest rates, and what’s ahead for buyers and sellers in 2025. Check out the full video below!
Atif wasted no time in confirming that activity is up. “It’s been bonkers,” he said. “I feel like I’ve been putting in 10- to 12-hour days for the last two weeks straight. Our applications are up about 18% in January, which is a nice sign.” Nationally, mortgage applications saw only a modest increase of 2.2% meaning Austin’s market is seeing stronger movement.
I’ve felt it, too. “Similarly, I’m working 12- to 15-hour days,” I told Atif. “A lot of it is generating and building—getting clients pre-approved and ready to hit the market, listing properties, and previewing homes.” The momentum is real, and buyers are engaging.
This is the big question everyone wants answered. According to Atif, rates have been relatively steady, and while we don’t expect a major drop, we’re likely past the aggressive spikes of the last two years.
“The Fed’s basically on pause,” he explained. “They’re not raising rates, and they’re not necessarily cutting them either. At the beginning of September, we were modeling four to five cuts for 2025. By January, that projection had gone down to maybe one or two.”
What does that mean for buyers? Atif put it simply: “If we can just keep things stable for a minute—because we haven’t had that in two years—that would be a plus.”
The challenge, as I see it, is buyer psychology. “Data has shown that prospective homebuyers take about 90 days to adjust to a rate change,” I pointed out. “If rates are constantly fluctuating, people get paralyzed and don’t make a decision.” Stability, even at slightly higher rates, is what gives buyers confidence to move forward.
While rates are a huge factor, we’re also seeing shifts in pricing strategy. “Last year, maybe even the year before, listings were still priced a little high,” Atif said. “But now, I don’t think there’s much room for that. Everything that’s coming to market seems priced right.”
I’ve been having similar conversations with my sellers. “If you don’t price well from the jump, by the time you get there, you’re already 100-plus days on market, and you’ve missed your momentum,” I said. “You’re probably going to end up at the number I told you to start with—or lower—because of time and staleness.”
That’s playing out in real-time. “We ran comps on a listing in Bouldin this morning,” I told Atif. “One house went under contract in four days for $100,000 more than everything else in the neighborhood because it was priced correctly. Meanwhile, the others sat for 70 to 80 days and took multiple price cuts before selling for less than their last list price.”
The lesson? Sellers who price appropriately from the start will sell faster and for more.
If you’re wondering whether now is a good time to buy, the answer depends on your goals.
“People have accepted that we’re probably not going to see a huge, monumental shift in rates anytime soon,” I said. “Buyers today are moving out of necessity—they’re having a second child, relocating, or making a long-term investment.”
Atif added that some buyers are taking advantage of today’s market to get into areas they couldn’t have touched a few years ago. “We cannot come back and get you that house in Tarrytown for $1.5M once rates go down,” he emphasized. “That thing’s going to be $1.7M, $1.8M—maybe $2M.”
Some of the best opportunities? “Lake Austin has about 50 properties on the market right now, both public and private,” I shared. “And Barton Hills has some great homes. Some builders are sitting on new construction and really need to sell.”
For buyers willing to put in the work, there’s even more upside. “A house in Zilker just had eight offers at $1.2M,” I said. “Move-in ready homes are getting multiple bids. But if a buyer has the bandwidth to hire a great contractor and take on a renovation, there are deals to be had.”
At the end of the day, real estate is about long-term strategy, not chasing short-term market fluctuations. “Interest rates are important,” Atif acknowledged, “but what’s more important is securing a really good house at a really good price. We can always come back and refinance when rates drop, whether it’s a year and a half or two years from now.”
I couldn’t agree more. “The best of the best are going to be busy,” I told Atif. “We’re working harder than ever because buyers and sellers need guidance right now. They want to know what’s happening, and they want us to be honest with them.”
So, if you’re considering making a move, let’s talk. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of it all, having the right team in your corner makes all the difference.
Let’s make 2025 a strong year.
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